As a Laker fan this past year even with the break in action, social justice focus, and the bubble; this year ended exactly as it should have! Now looking forward to next year:
Projected Standings:
West:
1. Lakers
The Champs had another awesome offseason. It is past due
time to give Rob Pelinka some love and respect. They are the most deep and talented
team in the NBA. They were able to bring back Markieff Morris which I think is important
for lineup flexibility. They improve the punch off their bench with signing the
6th man of the year in Montrezl Harrell. They were able to bring back KCP,
replace Danny Green with Wesley Matthews, and replace JaVale McGee with Marc
Gasol. They also then traded for Dennis Schroder to have another player along
with Harrell to be on AD’s career timeline to go with Kuz and Caruso. They have
a couple of athletic young players in Talen Horton-Tucker and Alfonso McKinnie
but they should only play in blow outs. I am hoping the scoring punch of Schroder
will make up for the play making they lost with Rondo. The only concern I have
is getting off to a slow start since they will have the shortest offseason in
NBA history. Guessing LeBron will get his rest early in the season. Also, I
hope they sign Pau to a one-year deal, that would be a cool ending to his career
to come back to LA and win another championship playing alongside his brother who he was traded for to get to LA in the first place.
2. Clippers
They are still pretty dang good. I think Tyronn Lue is a heck of
a coach and should be able to get the best out of this group. They will have a
second year of coming together which should be very beneficial. Their two best
players seem to be healthier and should have more motivation than any other
team outside of maybe Milwaukee to prove that they can win a championship. They
lost JaMychal Green, Mo Harkless, and Harrell but were able to re-sign Marcus
Morris, who they got at the end of last year, and Serge Ibaka who will help
them immensely. He is the perfect fit to play with George and Leonard, someone
who doesn’t need to be in the paint offensively but can protect the rim on the
defensive side of the court. They replaced Landry Shamet with Luke Kennard which
I don’t think will be much of a difference. I liked the Batum signing to see if
he has anything left. I think the biggest thing they will miss is the efficiency
of a Lou Williams-Harrell pick and roll. That was their go to play when George
and Leonard were on the bench. Their roster now doesn’t really have a roll guy, Zubac
would be the best candidate but doesn’t have near the athleticism or quickness
that Harrell has. So overall I think their starting 5 is better than last year
but their bench isn’t as good.
3. Nuggets
I think that the Murray and Jokic breakout was for real.
They are replacing Jerami Grant with JaMychal Green which feels pretty much
like a wash. I think that Millsap is nearing the end of being an effective player.
I love Monte Morris and think he is one of the best backup PGs in the league. The
hope is that Michael Porter Jr will breakout this year and consistently be the 3rd
star. Will Barton is solid and maybe we will see some more of Bol Bol this
year. I think there is a big difference between the top 2 teams and teams 3-6.
4. Jazz
Bringing back pretty much the same team as last year but
adding Derrick Favors as the backup center to Rudy Gobert. I do wonder if the
reported strife between Gobert and Mitchell and the never-ending argument of if
your star players get along and whose team it is will be distracting. I think
that Clarkson plays more focused when he isn’t on a garbage team and he can be
a spark plug off the bench if Mitchell is ever having an off night. I think
that Conley will have a better year this year, but that might be hoping for too
much. I like Bogdanovic, Ingles, O’Neale, Niang as you can interchange them
between the 3 and the 4 and go with whatever matches up better or the hot hand.
5. Trail Blazers
This is a really deep team. They have Nurkic, Collins, and
Kanter at the 5 or can move Collins to the 4 if they want to play big. Then
they have Covington and Melo at the 4 with a possible unproven option of Nassir
Little. Then at the 3 they have Derrick Jones Jr and Rodney Hood. Then in the backcourt
they have Dame and McCollum backed up by Anfernee Simmons and Gary Trent Jr. I like
the mix of size and shooting; I like the mix of young guys and veterans. Terry
Stotts is a proven coach. The question is whether they will play enough defense
to be a 5 seed instead of fighting for an 8 seed. I think Covington will help
in that regard, but you are never going to be a good defensive team with that
backcourt, you are always going to have to outscore people. They were 3rd
in offensive rating each of the past 2 years, but 2 years ago when they finished
3rd in the west they were 16th in defensive rating (with
Al-Farouq Aminu at PF) and last year they were 28th in defensive
rating. But I think they will be motivated after having to back into the
playoffs as an 8 seed and needing a play-in to do it. And then having Chuck
pick them to sweep the Lakers in the first round and getting beat 4-1 should be
more fuel to the fire.
6. Mavericks
As I stated in my review of my 2019 picks, I will never
doubt Luka again. He is a top 8 player in the NBA right now. You can pick your
order but mine with a healthy KD would go like this: Giannis, LeBron, KD, AD,
Harden, Kawhi, Luka, Dame. I think it hurts not knowing when they will get Porzingis
back, and when they do if they can keep him healthy. But I think Dwight Powell,
Maxi Kleber, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Boban should be able to hold down the
fort until then. I think the additions of Josh Richardson and James Johnson
give them some more toughness. I think they will miss Seth Curry, which will require Tim
Hardaway Jr and Dorian Finney-Smith to have to step up. They have Jalen
Brunson and J.J. Barea (which seems like he has been there forever) to back up
Luka but Luka will have to play big minutes and at an MVP level until Kristaps
comes back if they want to get 1st in offensive rating again this year.
Also got to give a shout out to their proven head coach, Rick Carlisle.
7. Rockets
If James Harden is on their roster, they will have an
offense that can carry them into the playoffs. I have no idea what they will
get out of John Wall or Demarcus Cousins this year. I think that Christian Wood
has potential but has only had one good year on a bad Detroit team. Eric Gordon
will have to have a bounce back year and Ben McLemore will need to keep playing
above expectations for them to get higher than this. If they do decide to tear
it down they should get a lot for Harden (I think the 76ers make the most sense
as a trade partner since you can get Ben Simmons back) but then they would have
to find a way to also get rid of Wall. And I don’t think there are a lot of
players that can match that salary in a trade (Paul and Westbrook were one of
those few). They should also be able to get some draft capital for PJ Tucker if
they go down that route.
8. Suns
I think this is between the Pelicans and the Suns. I am
going with the Suns because I think they fit together better. I am not sure how
Lonzo and Eric Bledsoe fit together nor am I sure how Zion and Steven Adams
will fit together. But I think Chris Paul can be great again and won’t have to
do as much scoring in late game situations with the Suns since he will have
Devin Booker. I really liked the Jae Crowder signing and I think that will allow
Saric to back up Ayton at the 5 more often than playing beside him. They should
find some serviceable depth with Cameron Payne, E’Twaun Moore, Cameron Johnson,
Jevon Carter, Abdel Nader, and Langston Galloway. If Mikal Bridges and Deandre
Ayton improve upon last year and with the addition of Chris Paul, I think that
will be enough for them to finally make the playoffs.
9. Pelicans, 10. Grizzlies, 11. Warriors, 12. Timberwolves,
13. Kings, 14. Spurs, 15. Thunder
East:
1. Bucks
This is any easy pick. They have been the #1 seed the past 2
years and they still have Giannis. I think that Jrue Holiday fits better than Bledsoe
did and doesn’t have the post-season baggage that Bledsoe has. I am a little worried
about their depth, I think their bench got worse from last year. They lost George
Hill, Wesley Matthews, Ersan Illyasova, and Robin Lopez. I don’t think who they
added: D.J Augustin, Bryn Forbes, Bobby Portis, Torrey Craig; are as good. I
think the development of Donte DiVencenzo and potentially Pat Cannaughton is important for
them to solidify their best lineup.
2. Nets
This all depends on the health of their two stars KD and
Kyrie. I would usually have pause with Steve Nash’s first year at the helm, but he
has Mike D’Antoni and Jacque Vaughn on his staff. They were able to bring back
Joe Harris and brought in Bruce Brown and Landry Shamet for defensive purposes.
I think they are a very deep team with a high ceiling that all depends on
health. They could win it all.
3. Heat
They are bringing back pretty much the same crew that last
we saw them they were in the NBA finals. I think replacing Jae Crowder with
Avery Bradley and Mo Harkless is pretty much a wash. I think they expected more
out of Iguodala and he is not getting any younger. Hopefully all the players
that broke out last year can prove it wasn’t a fluke (looking at Herro and Robinson
here). Coach Spo is one of the best in the league and the Heat will have no
problem playing in front of no fans again.
4. Celtics
Spots 4 through 7 were extremely difficult to sort through. I think
the Celtics are a thin team. While they didn’t get what they envisioned
from Hayward they will still miss him this year. I think having Jeff Teague and Tristan
Thompson will be good, but Kemba will be working his way back from injury. The
question will be if Brown can reach the same level as Tatum, then this team has
a chance in the east. Short of that I don’t see this as a championship roster.
5. Raptors
Can the Raptors outperform my expectations again? Lowry is a
year older, and they lose Ibaka and Gasol. I like VanVleet, Anunoby, and Norm
Powell, and Siakam is great. I just don’t see the top end potential of this
team. I trust Nick Nurse and Masai Ujiri but that is the only reason I have
them above the 76ers. I think Baynes, Boucher, and Len are serviceable in the
front court but won’t be as good as Ibaka and Gasol have been.
6. 76ers
This is a lot of change for one offseason to expect them to hit
the ground running. I think that Doc has pedigree but his standing as a top
coach took a hit with the underwhelming playoff performance of the Clippers this past year. I
think getting Danny Green and Seth Curry will definitely improve their shooting.
Also, Tobias Harris had his best year for Doc Rivers in LA so I think he will
have a surprisingly good year. It is still up in the air how the fit is between
Embiid and Simmons, and what they are going to do in clutch situations.
7. Pacers
They are breaking in a new coach, but a coach that worked
closely with Nick Nurse. I know having a branch of a coaching tree isn’t the
same as the trunk. This has been proven over and over in the NFL and NBA. They are a deep
team, whose ceiling depends on how close Oladipo and Sabonis can get to
elite. They dealt with some injuries last year and TJ Warren was able to step
up in the bubble. It will be interesting to see if that was a blip or a sign of
things to come for him.
8. Hawks
This is a tier below teams 4-7 and I had a hard time picking
between the Hawks and Wizards. I don’t like the fit of Bogdanovic,
Gallinari, and Collins but they are undoubtedly more talented than they were a
year ago. I like the Rondo signing, as he can help mentor Trae Young to reach the next
level. They still have young talent that can improve in Hunter, Huerter,
Reddish, Okongwu. So, their balance of proven players and young talent pushed
the Hawks ahead of the Wizards for me. I liked the Westbrook-Wall trade
for the Wizards. Westbrook’s availability won’t be in question as it was with Wall.
There was public beef between Wall and Beal that will no longer matter, and
you are reuniting Westbrook with his old OKC coach in Scott Brooks. He should have
experience on balancing the offense between Beal and Westbrook as he did with
Durant and Westbrook. I like Bertans and Hachimura but the Wizards just don’t have
the depth that the Hawks have.
9. Wizards, 10. Magic, 11. Hornets, 12. Bulls, 13. Pistons,
14. Cavs, 15. Knicks
Bonus:
How the Thunder could finish their tear down:
Plus, a protected 1st round pick to the Thunder.
For the Thunder this adds to their treasure trove of picks,
they get younger, have slightly less money this year, and less years overall.
For the Hornets they are obviously trying to win more now by adding Gordon
Hayward to their roster. Now with adding these 2 veterans I think they get
better even if Hollinger’s Analysis doesn’t agree with me. They add Horford to
their starting lineup and move LaMelo Ball (the 3rd overall pick
this year) to replace Terry Rozier to play alongside their other young building
block in Davonte Graham. Also George Hill is a role player who doesn’t need the
ball in his hands and neither Rozier nor Bismack Biyombo are a part of their long-term
plans.
Plus a 2nd round pick to the Thunder. On its surface this is really just a swap of bench players. But I think this
makes sense for ATL since Snell is not a part of their plans and Ariza has been
a champion and been around winning basketball a lot in his career. I think him
teaming up with Rondo and Gallinari would give the Hawks good leadership as they
push for the playoffs this year. Having Ariza will add to their glut of bigger wing players but Ariza is a different type of player than Bogdonavic and Gallinari. I think with Trae Young it may be hard to play small ball, but
their offense could be great with Collins at the 5. For the Thunder you pay
slightly less money and get a 2nd round pick.
I know Presti is one of the best in the business so he will
probably do better than this, but this is what I would do if available.
I think the Knicks would have to get draft compensation here to give up RJ Barrett. So maybe the 76ers would send out two 1sts, one to each the Rockets and the Knicks. I like this trade because the Rockets don't have to tank to stay competitive. They build around Harris and Simmons for the next 4 years and get to see how good Barrett, Thybulle, and Maxey are. The Knicks just get to become more interesting, and Wall/Cousins still get to play together. The Knicks haven't been able to draw marquee free agents to NYC since Amare Stoudemire so maybe a healthy John Wall would be able to do that. It is not like they would have been able to use their cap space any better on the open market. Also this allows Obi Toppin to move to 4 and not have Julius Randle eat up his minutes. For the 76ers they become contenders in the east immediately. In the starting lineup you replace Simmons with Harden, Harris with Tucker, Thybulle with Gordon, and they still have newly acquired Danny Green which would round out their starting 5 to go along with Embiid. I think you would give up two 1sts and having to swap Maxey for Ntilikina to be able to do that. I don't think Simmons will ever reach MVP caliber which Harden has already so I wouldn't have any hesitations of making more of a win now move if I ran the Sixers.
