Thursday, December 3, 2020

Looking back at 2019 NBA predictions

 How I did with my 2019 NBA predictions:

West:

My projections:

Actual:

1. Clippers

Lakers

2. Lakers

Clippers

3. Jazz

Nuggets

4. Rockets

Rockets

5. Nuggets

Thunder

6. Warriors

Jazz

7. Trail Blazers

Mavericks

8. Spurs

Trail Blazers

Some notes on why I made my picks and if I was right or wrong:

Clippers

I had said they needed a backup center and that they should have signed Dwight Howard, instead he signed with the Lakers and played way better than Joakim Noah.

Lakers

I was pretty spot on and even too tempered with my expectations. I loved their signings of Rondo, Green, KCP, McGee, and DMC (but he got replaced with Howard essentially). And like everyone expected their best lineups were with AD at the 5. I also said I hoped they would sign Carmelo because I thought he would have more to give in a reduced role, that turned out true but just for the Blazers.

Jazz

I really liked the Conley and Bogdanovic additions, but Conley had trouble staying healthy and wasn't the same PG he was in Memphis. Utah ended up 6th but in my defense seeds 3 thru 6 were separated by 1.5 games.

Rockets

I did these projections before the Westbrook/Paul trade but that didn't really change much. I said the Rockets had dysfunction in their locker room but they had been around each other long enough that D'Antoni would find the best way to play around his backcourt. They traded Capela to cater to Westbrook and they ended up 4th just like I guessed. Then D'Antoni and Morrey left.

Nuggets

I said that they brought everyone back and that their best players (Nokic, Murray) are only getting better, which turned out to be absolutely true with Murray's playoff performance. (I also said that about Harris but he didn't show the same improvement as Nokic and Murray.)

Warriors

I gave too much credit to a championship culture. I did not think they would end up tanking for the #2 overall pick. I did say that we needed to hope that Steph stayed healthy and he did not. With his injury issues and Draymond's they were not a good team. They ended up swapping Russell for Wiggins but that didn't matter much by how depleted they were.

Trail Blazers

I said they were a good but not great team and that losing Nurkic would hurt but Whiteside would fill-in fine until he came back. I also made a note that I hoped Dame's super max extension would work out better than Westbrook's or Wall's and those two just got traded for each other.

Spurs

Honestly I put them here because Pop had made the playoffs for 20 some straight years. I just felt like I had to put him in until he didn't make it. I don't see them making it this upcoming year either.

Teams that made the playoffs I didn't predict:

5. Oklahoma City Thunder

I like most people did not have the Thunder making the playoffs. Paul had an amazing year, they were great in close games, and they maximized their talent. They lost to the Rockets in the first round. And have shrewdly torn down. Though I do want to mention that you can have all the picks in the world but they have to draft the right player or use them in trades otherwise they end up not meaning much.

7. Dallas Mavericks

I will never doubt Luka again.

East:

My projections:

Actual:

1. Bucks

Bucks

2. 76ers

Raptors

3. Pacers

Celtics

4. Celtics

Pacers

5. Nets

Heat

6. Raptors

76ers

7. Heat

Nets

8. Pistons

Magic

Notes:

Bucks

Said Giannis was the best player on the planet and he was that during the regular season. This was an easy pick.

76ers

I commented that the team was constructed weird and that the pieces didn't all fit together, and that it was dependent on Harris having a big year. He did not, and the fit was weird and they now got rid of Richardson and Horford, fired their coach, hired Doc Rivers and hired Morrey as President of Operations. I also thought Embiid could pick up Jimmy Butler's late game offense and that didn't really come into fruition either. Which is why they didn't end up as high as I had thought.

Pacers

I loved how deep this team was and I think that proved out to be true with Warren having a break out in the bubble. I thought they were going to get a healthy Oladipo back at some point and that never happened, so that is why I was little too high on them.

Celtics

I said with Kemba they would play with more heart and I think that was true. I said that Tatum and Brown would flourish in expanded roles and that was true. They ended up about where I had guessed.

Nets

I predicted them higher because I assumed Kyrie was going to play all year and that didn't end up happening. They were about where they were the year before signing Kyrie and KD and they essentially redshirted for a year.

Raptors

I thought they would take a bigger step back without Kawhi and Danny Green. Kawhi was obviously a loss for them in the playoffs but Danny Green not so much. VanVleet and Siakam played well in an expanded role and I think you need to start giving them extra wins off of projections because of Nick Nurse.

Heat

I undersold the Heat. I don't think anyone expected Nunn, Herro, and Robinson to have the years they had. Bam progressed faster than most people thought. I did say that I thought Jimmy Butler would do well in Miami and that they would embrace his style of play. Coach Spo did an amazing job for them, especially in their playoff run to the finals. I think the bubble didn't effect Miami as much as it did other teams.

Pistons

I thought it was a crap shoot between them and the Magic to make the 8 seed so I wasn't that far off. I thought having Rose, Griffin, and Drummond would mean that Detroit had more talent than the Magic so they would win out. But they traded Drummond and you can never count on Rose and Griffin to play every game anymore. The Magic got the last spot instead.

Trades I wanted to see:

Westbrook to the Heat for Dragic and Winslow and either 2 1sts or a 1st and Herro.

I think the Thunder are happy for how the Westbrook for Paul trade went, as they got 2 1sts anyway and still made the playoffs. Then flipped Paul for another 1st and Kelly Oubre who they flipped for a 1st. We will see who those picks turn into, hopefully someone as good or better than Herro. For Miami they made the NBA finals with Dragic and Herro so are probably glad this trade didn't go down either. So overall not a great trade proposal for either team here, not my best work.

Kevin Love to Blazers for Whiteside and Gary Trent Jr. and a pick

Love is still stuck on the Cavs though the Drummond pairing will be interesting if they can both stay healthy. Though I don't think it will matter much and the Cavs will stay in the East's basement. I think both teams going back would wish they would have made this trade. The Cavs then maybe would have just resigned Whiteside instead of trading for Drummond and him opting into his player option which would have been much cheaper. And Gary Trent Jr is a player that would fit their timeline.

Jrue Holiday to the Magic for Evan Fournier, Mo Bamba, and a pick

I did not think the Pels were going to get the haul they got from the Bucks for Jrue Holiday. They turned Holiday into Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe and two 1st round picks. I thought Mo Bamba and one 1st rd pick would be enough with Fournier as needed just for the salaries to match. Obviously the Magic would have loved for this trade to happen but the Pels did way better than this.

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